Performance Comparison of ARIMA, LSTM, and Prophet Methods in Sales Forecasting
DOI:
10.33395/sinkron.v8i4.14057Keywords:
Forecasting, Sales, ARIMA, LSTM, ProphetAbstract
The development of the business world that is growing rapidly today resulted in tighter competitiveness between fellow business actors. One of the businesses that has sprung up in the market today is the bakery business. Currently, bread is one of the food needs in Indonesia that is great demand by children to the elderly, which is often used as breakfast or snack. One of the companies that produces white bread is the Bandung White Bread Factory. The number of sales at this factory continues to increase every month based on total sales data recorded since 2021. With the increasing number of sales at this factory, the factory often experiences stock shortages and cannot meet customer demand. Therefore, in this study, a model has been developed to forecast the sales of white bread using the ARIMA, LSTM, and Prophet methods. The results of the study showed that the ARIMA method (1,0,2) had the best performance compared to the LSTM and Prophet methods, because the ARIMA method (1,0,2) produced the smallest error accuracy value, namely with a MAPE value of 4.548%, an MSE value of 2248.0822, and an RMSE value of 47.4139.
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