Using Fuzzy Tsukamoto Method In Forecasting The Amount Medication Requrementsat In The Hospital

Abstract

The pharmaceutical installation as one of the hospital service locations is an inseparable part of the hospital health service system which is oriented towards patient service, including pharmaceutical services needed by patients such as consumable medical equipment that is affordable for all levels of society and the provision of quality medicines. The problem that arises is the uncertain number of patients and the medicines needed by each patient are different and often the supply of medicines that are currently needed by the community is empty, while medicines that are less needed are in abundant stock. Mistakes in ordering medicines can cause shortages or excesses of medicine stock. They tend to only use estimates of the amount of remaining stock without any special methods being used. Even hospital pharmacies tend to buy too many medicines because of uncertain demand and fear of shortages. A method that can help in predicting the amount needed for medicines is by applying the fuzzy Tsukamoto method. The prediction process begins with testing drug data in 2022 to predict the amount needed for medicines in 2023 before finally the drug data for 2023 is used to predict the amount needed in 2024.The prediction process will use drug sales data in the form of the amount of inventory, the amount needed and remaining stock to build a prediction model that projects the amount of drug need in the year 2023. This approach will involve analyzing historical data and applying the Tsukamoto method to produce predictions of the amount needed for all drugs in the following year.

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