An Integrated K-Means and Composite Risk Scoring Framework for Urban Dengue Vulnerability Mapping

Abstract

The rising incidence of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) in Indonesian urban areas highlights the urgent need for analytical frameworks capable of capturing spatial heterogeneity in vulnerability while supporting targeted public health interventions. However, most existing dengue vulnerability studies rely on clustering or indicator-based scoring in isolation, limiting interpretability and reducing their operational relevance for policy-driven decision making. This study explicitly addresses this gap by proposing an integrated spatial clustering and epidemiologically weighted composite risk scoring framework for urban dengue vulnerability mapping. Using Semarang Municipality as a case study, K Means based spatial clustering was combined with composite risk scoring to analyze dengue vulnerability across administrative subdistricts. Seven key indicators consisting of population density, area size, total population, morbidity, mortality, incidence rate, and health facility availability were processed through systematic imputation, normalization, and attribute selection to ensure data consistency and analytical robustness. The optimal number of clusters was determined using the Elbow Method and Silhouette Score, after which K-Means clustering was applied to generate spatially coherent vulnerability groupings. A composite risk scoring mechanism was subsequently employed to classify regions into five operational risk categories: Low-Risk, Moderate-Risk, High-Risk, Very High-Risk, and Emergency-Priority. The results reveal clear structural differentiation in dengue vulnerability patterns, where Emergency-Priority and Very High-Risk clusters are not only characterized by elevated epidemiological indicators but also by constrained health service availability, amplifying outbreak susceptibility. Specifically, 13 subdistricts (7.5%) were identified as Emergency-Priority and 22 subdistricts (12.4%) as Very High-Risk, together accounting for approximately 20% of the study area. Beyond numerical classification, the integration of spatial clustering and composite risk scoring enhances interpretability by linking cluster structure with epidemiological severity and service capacity, thereby improving policy relevance compared to conventional clustering-only approaches. Validation through heatmap visualization, risk category distribution, and cluster ranking confirms the stability and interpretive clarity of the proposed framework. By moving beyond descriptive clustering toward an integrated analytical model, this study contributes a scalable and adaptive decision-support framework for dengue risk mapping. The findings provide actionable insights for policymakers, enabling evidence-based prioritization, optimized resource allocation, and the development of responsive intervention strategies to mitigate dengue burden in complex urban environments.

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