Hybrid Machine Learning Predictive Model for Resource Allocation Optimization and Project Risk Management
DOI:
10.33395/sinkron.v10i1.15773Keywords:
Hybrid Machine Learning, IT Project Management, Resource Allocation Optimization, Project Risk Assessment, Predictive ModelingAbstract
IT project management faces critical challenges related to inaccurate resource allocation estimation and project risk assessment, which complicates decision-making and threatens project performance. Although machine learning techniques have been widely adopted in this domain, existing studies predominantly rely on single models or simple ensemble strategies, limiting their ability to capture heterogeneous interactions among organizational, technical, and risk-related factors. This study proposes a hybrid machine learning–based decision support framework that integrates feature-level representation learning and probabilistic decision fusion. Gradient Boosting is reconceptualized as a feature selection and nonlinear interaction modeling mechanism, while Artificial Neural Networks generate latent feature embeddings representing complex project characteristics. These representations are fused through a Naive Bayes classifier to produce calibrated probabilistic predictions, supported by a weighted fusion strategy with F1-score–based threshold optimization to improve stability under imbalanced risk conditions. Experimental evaluation is conducted using 5,997 synthetic IT project records from PT Anugerah Nusa Teknologi. Model performance is evaluated using accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, and ROC-AUC metrics. Compared to standalone Gradient Boosting, Artificial Neural Network, and Naive Bayes models, the proposed hybrid framework consistently demonstrates superior predictive performance, achieving an accuracy of 0.85, an F1-score of 0.8485, and a ROC-AUC of 0.9050. Theoretically, this study contributes to project management research by demonstrating that IT project outcomes are more effectively modeled through multi-perspective learning rather than isolated predictors. Practically, the proposed framework provides actionable decision support to assist project managers in optimizing resource allocation and prioritizing risk mitigation under uncertainty.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Andika Noor Ismawan, Sawali Wahyu
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