Drug Stock Prediction at Balige HKBP Hospital Using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System

Abstract

Currently the purchases of drugs at Instalasi Farmasi RSU (IFRS) HKBP Balige are based on the examination of the amount of drugs usage. The purchases of drugs based on the examination of the amount of drugs usage cause frequent unplanned drugs purchases that must be hastened (cito) and purchases to other pharmacies. The purchases of cito and purchases to other pharmacies will inflict a financial loss to the patients, because when IFRS makes drugs purchases of cito or to other pharmacies, the cost of the drugs will be more expensive. Therefore, in this research, a prediction of drugs stock in IFRS HKBP Balige using Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) will be carried out. ANFIS is a combination of Least Square Estimator (LSE) and Error Back Propagation (EBP) algorithms. ANFIS consists of forward pass and the backward pass learning. The sample data used to predict drugs stock in this research is data of drugs sales at the IFRS HKBP Balige from 2013 to 2015. From the results of drugs stock prediction research with ANFIS, obtained that number of errors of ANFIS model is 5.52%. Based on MAPE accuracy level evaluation, number of errors have an excellent rate so that it can be concluded that the predicted results of the drugs stock are good.

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