Academic Performance Prediction from Student–VLE Bipartite Interaction Graphs Using Centrality Features A Comparative Study with Classical Classifiers
DOI:
10.33395/sinkron.v10i1.15798Keywords:
Educational Data Mining, Student Performance Prediction, Bipartite Graph, Centrality Features, XGBoost, Random Forest, SVMAbstract
The rapid growth of digital learning platforms has increased the availability of student academic records and fine-grained interaction logs, creating opportunities for Educational Data Mining (EDM) to support early academic monitoring. However, many predictive models still rely mainly on individual tabular attributes and underutilize relational signals embedded in learning interactions. This study proposes a graph-mining feature approach for predicting student academic performance using a bipartite Student–VLE interaction graph. Centrality measures—degree, weighted degree, HITS hub, PageRank, and eigenvector centrality—are extracted to form a centrality feature set and combined with standard student information features. Using the public OULAD dataset, we compare three supervised classifiers: Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, and XGBoost. Experiments show that adding the centrality feature set consistently and substantially improves performance across all models compared to baseline tabular features. On the test set, XGBoost achieves the strongest results with accuracy 0.842, ROC-AUC 0.922, PR-AUC 0.902, and MCC 0.684, while Random Forest is close behind (accuracy 0.834, ROC-AUC 0.916, PR-AUC 0.894, MCC 0.672). The SVM model also benefits (accuracy 0.800, ROC-AUC 0.869, PR-AUC 0.811, MCC 0.599), confirming the robustness of the graph-derived signal. Scientifically, this study provides empirical evidence that a multi-centrality representation offers more systematic and transferable predictive value than relying on a single graph metric, across multiple classical model families under the same evaluation protocol. These findings indicate that graph-mining centrality features capture complementary structural information about learning engagement that is not represented by tabular attributes alone, and they offer a practical, interpretable enhancement to classic EDM pipelines for academic performance prediction.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Ai Irma Sumiati, Taqwa Hariguna, Azhari Shouni Barkah
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